Low-Risk Drift Review

Inputs

Source	Present	as_of
data/rankings.json	True	2026-05-19 05:22 PM CDT
data/watchlist_rankings.json	True	2026-05-19 05:22 PM CDT
data/reports/scoring_parity_review.json	True	—

Verdict

delta(mean low_risk) wl_main - main = -1.6091 · flags: selection_bias

Flag	Triggered	Detail
formula_issue	False	severity=OK · examples=[]
data_gap	False	main=[] wlm=[]
selection_bias	True	[{"kind": "speculative_sector_share", "main": 0.48, "watchlist_main": 0.7761, "delta": 0.2961}, {"kind": "high_vol_bucket_share", "main": 0.26, "watchlist_main": 0.7761, "delta": 0.5161}]

low_risk distribution by group

Group	rows	n	mean	median	min	p25	p75	max	null
main_rankings	100	100	7.224	7.2	3.1	6.175	8.4	9.9	0
main_top25	25	25	7.356	7.3	4.7	6.5	8.2	9.3	0
main_top10	10	10	7.54	7.25	6.5	6.875	8.2	9.2	0
watchlist_main_pipeline	67	67	5.6149	6.2	0	3.5	7.55	9.4	0
watchlist_supp	74	50	5.2176	5.615	0	3.1125	8.015	9.77	24

Risk-input coverage

Group	field	present	null	% null
main_rankings	atr_pct	100	0	0
main_rankings	vol_bucket	100	0	0
main_rankings	swing_score	100	0	0
main_rankings	market_cap	100	0	0
main_top25	atr_pct	25	0	0
main_top25	vol_bucket	25	0	0
main_top25	swing_score	25	0	0
main_top25	market_cap	25	0	0
main_top10	atr_pct	10	0	0
main_top10	vol_bucket	10	0	0
main_top10	swing_score	10	0	0
main_top10	market_cap	10	0	0
watchlist_main_pipeline	atr_pct	67	0	0
watchlist_main_pipeline	vol_bucket	67	0	0
watchlist_main_pipeline	swing_score	67	0	0
watchlist_main_pipeline	market_cap	67	0	0
watchlist_supp	atr_pct	0	74	1
watchlist_supp	vol_bucket	0	74	1
watchlist_supp	swing_score	0	74	1
watchlist_supp	market_cap	67	7	0.0946

vol_bucket share

Group	bucket	count	share
main_rankings	High	26	0.26
main_rankings	Low	4	0.04
main_rankings	Med	70	0.7
main_top25	High	5	0.2
main_top25	Med	20	0.8
main_top10	High	2	0.2
main_top10	Med	8	0.8
watchlist_main_pipeline	High	52	0.7761
watchlist_main_pipeline	Med	15	0.2239
watchlist_supp	__missing__	74	1

Sector mix

Group	speculative_share	top sectors (count)
main_rankings	0.48	Financial Services=24, Technology=22, Industrials=14, Healthcare=9, Energy=7, Communication Services=6
main_top25	0.4	Financial Services=10, Technology=5, Energy=2, Communication Services=2, Industrials=2, Healthcare=1
main_top10	0.5	Financial Services=5, Technology=3, Energy=1, Healthcare=1
watchlist_main_pipeline	0.7761	Technology=34, Industrials=7, Communication Services=6, Consumer Cyclical=6, Healthcare=4, Financial Services=4
watchlist_supp	0.5811	Technology=29, Industrials=9, ETF=7, Healthcare=7, Financial Services=5, Basic Materials=5

watchlist_main_pipeline by source label

label	rows	low_risk mean	median	spec_share
tradingview	38	5.9368	6.6	0.7368
csv	14	5.8714	5.7	0.7857
both	15	4.56	4	0.8667

Same-ticker overlap (main vs watchlist_main_pipeline)

shared tickers: 10 · differing low_risk: 0 · max |Δ|: 0 · mean |Δ| (over differing): 0

Highest / lowest low_risk names per group

main_rankings — top 5 highest

ticker	company	sector	low_risk	atr_pct	vol	cap
WBS	Webster Bank	Financial Services	9.9	0.01	Low	11.6B
ICE	Intercontinental Exchange	Financial Services	9.8	0.02	Med	87.2B
SEIC	SEI Investments Company	Financial Services	9.8	0.02	Med	10.9B
INTU	Intuit	Technology	9.7	0.05	High	111.2B
RS	Reliance, Inc.	Basic Materials	9.5	0.02	Med	18.2B

main_rankings — bottom 5 lowest

ticker	company	sector	low_risk	atr_pct	vol	cap
NBIX	Neurocrine Biosciences	Healthcare	3.1	0.03	Med	15.5B
MU	Micron Technology	Technology	3.7	0.07	High	788.0B
KO	Coca-Cola Company (The)	Consumer Defensive	4.3	0.02	Med	352.5B
MNST	Monster Beverage	Consumer Defensive	4.6	0.03	Med	84.5B
FSLR	First Solar	Technology	4.7	0.04	High	23.8B

main_top25 — top 5 highest

ticker	company	sector	low_risk	atr_pct	vol	cap
SCCO	Southern Copper	Basic Materials	9.3	0.05	High	141.0B
NDAQ	Nasdaq, Inc.	Financial Services	9.2	0.02	Med	52.0B
MLI	Mueller Industries	Industrials	9.2	0.03	Med	14.6B
PTC	PTC Inc.	Technology	8.6	0.03	Med	16.8B
HALO	Halozyme	Healthcare	8.4	0.04	High	8.15B

main_top25 — bottom 5 lowest

ticker	company	sector	low_risk	atr_pct	vol	cap
FSLR	First Solar	Technology	4.7	0.04	High	23.8B
AIZ	Assurant	Financial Services	5.6	0.02	Med	12.7B
KMI	Kinder Morgan	Energy	5.6	0.02	Med	76.3B
VIRT	Virtu Financial	Financial Services	6	0.03	Med	11.7B
OHI	Omega Healthcare Investors	Real Estate	6.4	0.02	Med	15.2B

main_top10 — top 5 highest

ticker	company	sector	low_risk	atr_pct	vol	cap
NDAQ	Nasdaq, Inc.	Financial Services	9.2	0.02	Med	52.0B
PTC	PTC Inc.	Technology	8.6	0.03	Med	16.8B
HALO	Halozyme	Healthcare	8.4	0.04	High	8.15B
OKE	Oneok	Energy	7.6	0.03	Med	60.0B
V	Visa Inc.	Financial Services	7.3	0.02	Med	627.4B

main_top10 — bottom 5 lowest

ticker	company	sector	low_risk	atr_pct	vol	cap
BLK	BlackRock	Financial Services	6.5	0.02	Med	160.9B
CACC	Credit Acceptance	Financial Services	6.7	0.03	Med	5.73B
ARW	Arrow Electronics	Technology	6.8	0.03	Med	10.5B
CPAY	Corpay	Technology	7.1	0.04	High	22.4B
AFL	Aflac	Financial Services	7.2	0.02	Med	60.3B

watchlist_main_pipeline — top 5 highest

ticker	company	sector	low_risk	atr_pct	vol	cap
AME	Ametek	Industrials	9.4	0.02	Med	50.7B
PATH	UiPath	Technology	9.4	0.06	High	5.49B
EQIX	Equinix	Real Estate	9.4	0.02	Med	103.4B
SCCO	Southern Copper	Basic Materials	9.3	0.05	High	141.0B
VEEV	Veeva Systems	Healthcare	9	0.04	High	26.7B

watchlist_main_pipeline — bottom 5 lowest

ticker	company	sector	low_risk	atr_pct	vol	cap
ALAB	Astera Labs	Technology	0	0.08	High	41.9B
CVNA	Carvana	Consumer Cyclical	0	0.06	High	69.5B
COIN	Coinbase	Financial Services	0	0.07	High	51.0B
RKLB	Rocket Lab	Industrials	0.6	0.07	High	73.7B
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	Technology	1	0.06	High	675.2B

watchlist_supp — top 5 highest

ticker	company	sector	low_risk	atr_pct	cap
RXRX	Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	Healthcare	9.77	—	1.51B
EMBC	Embecta Corp.	Healthcare	9.73	—	172.1M
RY	Royal Bank Of Canada	Financial Services	9.69	—	255.2B
AREC	American Resources Corporation	Basic Materials	9.25	—	222.4M
FRSH	Freshworks Inc.	Technology	9.17	—	2.52B

watchlist_supp — bottom 5 lowest

ticker	company	sector	atr_pct	cap
PGY	Pagaya Technologies Ltd.	Technology	—	1.05B
CRDO	Credo Technology Group Holding	Technology	—	31.2B
QUBT	Quantum Computing Inc.	Technology	—	2.08B
IONQ	IonQ, Inc.	Technology	—	18.1B
APLD	Applied Digital Corporation	Technology	—	11.2B

Cross-reference: scoring parity

{
  "parity_overall": "FAIL",
  "low_risk_status": "WARN",
  "low_risk_message": "mean delta watchlist_main - main = -1.61 (main=7.224, wlm=5.6149) \u2014 explained by selection bias (drift verdict: selection_bias, confidence: medium); same-ticker max |\u0394| = 0.0 on 10 shared tickers",
  "low_risk_delta": -1.6091
}

Recommendations

Leave the low_risk formula unchanged. The watchlist universe is materially more speculative / higher-volatility than the main universe, so a lower mean low_risk is expected and faithful to the inputs.
Consider demoting low_risk drift in cross-group parity from FAIL to a known selection-bias finding so it stops drowning out real parity blockers in the Midday Health Check.
Treat low_risk as explanatory in the watchlist context, not punitive — surface it next to the score rather than as a tag that demotes a row.
A future improvement (not in scope here) is to normalize low_risk by sector or market cap before cross-group comparison so the universe-mix effect is removed.